Kenya tight-lipped on Raila’s AUC campaign budget as continental push gains momentum

Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadi declined to disclose the amount Kenya will spend on supporting Raila Odinga’s bid for the African Union Commission Chair during a joint press conference in Nairobi with Odinga.

Mudavadi remained tight-lipped on the budget but noted, “It will require substantial resources to tour a continent with 55 countries and 1.4 billion people."

Despite the secrecy, it is well known that Raila’s campaign has already commenced, with visits to several African capitals just weeks after his candidacy was officially submitted to the African Union.

President Ruto, who is the AU institutional reforms champion, is the primary financial backer of these campaigns. The money will come from the Kenyan taxpayers.

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Dr Sylvanus Wekesa, an expert in foreign and continental affairs, suggests that to secure the African Union Commission Chair, Kenya will need to carefully court its neighbours and navigate existing regional rivalries to gain full support.

Raila has already visited Kampala, Uganda; Juba, South Sudan; Kinshasa, DRC; Lilongwe, Malawi; and Brazzaville, Congo, rallying support from African leaders.

Prime Cabinet Secretary Meeting with the Former Prime Minister Over AUC Bid https://t.co/jIuReCr2n1

— Musalia W Mudavadi (@MusaliaMudavadi) August 21, 2024

This is not Kenya's first attempt to secure the AU Commission Chair. In 2017, the country unsuccessfully supported former Foreign Minister Amina Mohammed, who lost to Chadian candidate Moussa Faki.

Wekesa, in an article for The Elephant, notes that this previous failure offers important lessons for President Ruto’s administration.

He cautions that Kenya must be mindful of the costs associated with lobbying for Raila, particularly given the current economic struggles and the unpopular decision to raise taxes.

“It is imperative to provide a compelling rationale to convince the Kenyan public of the seat’s importance to the country,” Wekesa, a research associate at the African Leadership Centre, King’s College London, advises.

In 2017, Nairobi spent over half a billion shillings lobbying for Amina’s campaign, which also prominently featured then-Deputy President William Ruto, now the President.